Elections Series: Sierra Leone – Presidential & Legislative
Author: Ayuko Picot
On June 24, 2023, voters in Sierra Leone will head to the polls to elect their president. Elections for all 149 members of the Parliament and local government will also be held on the same day. The incumbent President Julius Maada Bio of the Sierra Leone People’s Party (SLPP), who is seeking a second term, will be running against Samura Kamara of the All People’s Congress (APC). We brought together two scholars with expertise in the country to discuss with us this critical moment for Sierra Leone:
Fredline M’Cormack-Hale is Associate Professor at Seton Hall University, School of Diplomacy and International Relations, and directs policy research at the Institute for Governance Reform. A comparativist by training, with a regional focus on Africa, her research interests include the political economy of post-war states, with a focus on questions around gender and development, state accountability in service delivery (particularly health and education), and the interplay between the international aid community and national governments.
Niccolò Meriggi is an applied microeconomist with a regional focus on Sub-Saharan Africa. Niccolò uses primarily experimental methods to understand how to induce people to make welfare improving decisions in the domains of governance innovation and technology adoption. Niccolò works at the intersection of academia, policymaking, and practice and his research has been mostly embedded in policy reforms and development interventions around which he has built opportunities for learning.
What are the main issues that voters in Sierra Leone are most concerned about?
Niccoló Meriggi: As of now, most voters in Sierra Leonean are concerned about the increased/increasing cost of living, and most of the campaign seems to be centered around themes related to livelihood more than broader economic growth. The opposition has been providing examples about how much the cost of basic goods has increased over the past five years. The current administration has responded by explaining there is a global crisis and other countries have been affected by adverse economic conditions related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in the Ukraine.
Petty traders and other business people have acknowledged that the economic harshness is due to a global conjecture, but they have also been quick in comparing Sierra Leone to other countries in the region (e.g. Guinea and Liberia). A major source of concern for petty traders seems to be the unfavorable exchange rate of the Leone against the Guinean Franc. It was common for petty traders to purchase goods in Guinea and re-sell them in Sierra Leone, but the weaker Leones has made this harder and makes people believe that, in spite of the global economic downturn, Sierra Leone could and should be doing better.
Fredline M’Cormack-Hale: An Afrobarometer survey conducted a year ago (June-July 2022) in Sierra Leone showed that the issues most concerning for voters were economic management (48%) and food shortages (46%). At that time, only 8% of voters felt that the government was doing a good job in keeping price stables, while 32% said they were doing well in managing the economy. As Niccoló mentions, the economy remains a foremost concern for many citizens: the Leone has depreciated by 41% in the last one year and prices have steadily risen on nearly all commodities, while wages remain stagnant.
However, political mistrust and growing polarization are also of concern. The main opposition party, the APC has expressed concern about election rigging and says that key Electoral Management Bodies cannot be trusted, including the Electoral Commission of Sierra Leone. According to Afrobarometer, just over half (53%) of citizens say they trust the ECSL “somewhat” or “a lot”.
The number of citizens who believe that government treats members of their ethnic group unfairly has gone up by 22 percentage points from 2020, driven primarily by citizens in opposition areas in the North. Similar sentiments were expressed by citizens in the South and East in 2012, when the APC was in power. Fewer Sierra Leoneans also express tolerance for social difference, including for people from other ethnic groups, religion, and political affiliation. Matters are not helped by the proliferation of hate speech on social media as well as disinformation campaigns that all contribute to the current atmosphere of mistrust and declining social cohesion.
Five years ago, in 2018, Julius Maada Bio won the election against Samura Kamara by a close margin. After the 2018 legislative elections, the SLPP obtained a majority in parliament after contesting ten seats won by the APC. Tell us a bit more about each of these candidates, their parties, and campaign platforms.
FM: The SLPP historically has strong support in the South and East of the Country. In 2018, a popular campaign promise – which was implemented after winning the elections – was making education free for all. The party’s 2023 People’s Manifesto builds on the “New Direction” Manifesto of 2018. Subtitled, “The New Direction: Consolidating Gains and Accelerating Transformation,” the five main policy priorities include: Feed Salone (with a focus on reducing reliance on food imports and boosting exports), Human Capital Development (with a gender focus), Youth Employment Scheme to boost jobs for the youth, Revamping the public service and strengthening Tech and Infrastructure.
The SLPP led Sierra Leone to independence in 1961. Maada Bio was a junta leader during the civil war, but presided over the process of restoring the country to civilian rule. He had unsuccessfully contested the presidential election in 2007 before finally winning in 2018.
The APC took power from the SLPP in 1968 and ruled for twenty-four years, implementing one-party rule in 1978. Historically, the party garners much of its support from the Northern and Western regions of the country. Dr. Samura Kamara, the flagbearer, lost to Maada Bio in 2018. He has held a number of posts in previous administrations, including serving as Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation from 2012 to 2017 and Minister of Finance and Economic Development from 2009 to 2013, under Koroma and as Financial Secretary in the Ministry of Finance in President Ahmad Tejan Kabbah’s SLPP administration. The APC Manifesto has ten priorities, a few of which echo those of the SLPP. They too prioritize job creation, investment in people and physical and digital infrastructural development. Also among their top ten priorities are national cohesion, economic development, strengthening decentralization and rural development, enhancing good governance and rule of law, environmental protection and climate change, strengthening economic diplomacy and fostering partnerships with the diaspora for national development.
NM: It is true that in 2018 the margin between the two candidates was thin. Voters were discouraged by the APC administration and clearly wanted change. One peculiarity of the past elections was the establishment of two new “third parties” with strong support from specific populations, the Coalition for Change (C4C) and the National Grand Coalition (NGC). The C4C had strong support in Kono district, an historically competitive district referred to as “swing district.” The National Grand Coalition had more support from the youth, the more progressive “elite” in Freetown and across the country, and voters in Kambia district – the native district of the coalition leader.
In the run-off, C4C had sided with the SLPP and – although the leadership of the NGC remained neutral – a lot of the NGC supporters that wanted change voted for the SLPP. Since then, both the C4C and NGC lost their traction and people are even questioning whether these should be considered as effective parties. Which party the electoral base of C4C and NGC will side with is not yet clear and it will make the difference in the results.
In October 2022, President Julius Maada Bio re-introduced the proportional representation system shifting away from the first-past the post system. How might the change in the electoral system affect election outcomes?
NM: What is becoming more and more evident is that voters are lacking the basic understanding of the PR system and might not have all the elements to make an informed decision. This is particularly true for local councils and parliament, where people are asked to vote for the party symbol instead of voting for a candidate like they were doing under the “first-past-the-post” system.
Unlike other countries, the PR was not implemented to favor smaller parties. Rather, it was implemented to affect the outcome of the parliamentary elections. It is unlikely that the PR system will change the results of the presidential elections. Given the ambiguity surrounding who the candidates are, it is unclear how this will affect the results of the elections.
FM: Under the winner take all system, it was difficult for opposition parties in non-party strongholds to field candidates that would be successful. This is likely to change under the new system which advantages the SLPP who have more support in opposition strongholds, particularly in more ethnically diverse regions like Koinadugu, Kambia and Falaba. The electoral map could be close to the one of 2002, the last time the PR system was used. The high threshold of 11.9% to qualify for seats in parliament has also meant that third parties are effectively squeezed out, making this primarily a two-party race between the two oldest parties, the SLPP and the APC. Smaller parties that demonstrated strong showings in 2018 like the C4C in Kono and NGC in Kambia have effectively lost ground, with their supporters choosing to align either with the APC or the SLPP.
The Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment Bill was passed by parliament in November 2022. What was the impetus that led to the adoption of this law, and what impact will the quota have on women’s political representation?
FM: A quota has long been an advocacy point for women in the country, from demands made during Bintumani 1 (1995) and II (1996) during the war, to position papers submitted by women’s groups to inform constitutional review processes in 2007 and 2016. It was also one of the recommendations made by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission in 2004. A previous version of the Gender Equality and Women’s Empowerment (GEWE) bill failed to be tabled or debated before parliament closed in 2012, and it became a manifesto promise of the SLPP in the 2018 elections.
In 2019, the Ministry of Social Welfare, Gender and Children’s Affairs was split into two, separating Gender and Children’s Affairs from Social Welfare. The newly appointed Minister of Gender and Children’s Affairs made the development of a GEWE policy and passage of an accompanying bill a priority. A cross-section of women’s groups and CSOs worked with the Ministry to improve on the bill as well as engaged with parliamentarians both formally and informally to encourage that they passed the bill. However, the final version did not contain crucial elements that women’s groups wanted such as safe seats, a clearly defined quota for elected positions and more expansive inclusion of issues of concern for women, like SGBV, land and marriage rights, although it did have some commendable provisions including expanding maternity leave for women.
The text for the 30% quota for women in parliament is actually found in two other pieces of legislation: the 2022 Public Elections Act and the 2022 Political Parties Act. However, the quota calls for parties to nominate at least 30% of women in party lists in all districts rather than mandating 30% of women elected to parliament. Thus, while it is possible that women’s representation could double, it will still fall short of the 30% quota. This is because women were primarily placed third on the list, rather than in first or second position as many women-focused CSOs had advocated for. The absence of regulations specifying either high placement or the adoption of the zipper system militated against women. Lists have also largely not been made public, so we have to hope that parties will indeed honor even these low placements. Moreover, parliament also has 14 reserved seats for Paramount Chiefs Members of Parliament (PCMPs), one for each district in the country. Yet, in much of the country, particularly in the North and parts of the East, customs and tradition bar women from the Chieftaincy. Chiefs are not elected through popular vote, but rather, indirectly, through the Paramount Chief Councils, which are male dominated. Currently, only one PCMP is a woman, further limiting women’s political representation in parliament.
Approximately 3.3 million Sierra Leoneans, about 50%, are registered to vote in this upcoming election. What do you expect turnout to be like? What factors are driving youth participation in this upcoming election?
FM: Turnout in Sierra Leone is historically among the highest in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). According to the most recent Afrobarometer survey conducted in Sierra Leone, 86% of Sierra Leoneans said they voted in the last elections. It is likely that turnout will be high again among all segments of the population, including the youth which make up around 60% of registered voters. A study by the Institute for Governance Reform found that 96% of youth said they plan to vote. At 60%, youth unemployment is as high as it was pre-war. With the absence of jobs coupled with a weak private sector, politicians are able to use ethno-regional appeals for votes rather than substantive policy-based arguments, with the youth serving as foot soldiers. Drug use, especially kush is increasingly becoming a problem in Sierra Leone as well.