Fear of COVID-19, electoral violence and election outcomes in 2020/2021 Ugandan elections

Abstract

Uganda is at a critical juncture of the coronavirus pandemic and the 2020/2021 presidential elections where the incumbent might face the toughest challenge in his 35-year rule. While coronavirus cases continue to rise, there is evidence of yet uncharted territories of electoral violence. These two provide voters with increasing fear and might have a credible effect on both electoral outcomes the pandemic. In this proposal, we aim to study two related issues. First, we study the effect of presidential campaigns on coronavirus cases. In the second study, we assess the effect of the combined coronavirus and electoral violence shocks on voter behavior and electoral outcomes in Uganda.