Does Every Cloud Have a Silver Lining? Disasters and Polarization

Abstract

How do natural disasters impact political polarization? Which cues and framings work for de-polarizing the electorate during natural disasters? This study aims to conduct a sentiment analysis of social media data to examine the impact of natural disasters on polarization and then several survey experiments in Turkey. This highly polarized country recently went through natural disasters, including floods and wildfires. By randomizing the partisan identity of donor organizations (NGOs, municipalities) and the aid recipients, this project will help us understand to what extent the opposition’s de-polarization strategies are effective under an electoral autocratic and populist regime.