Disastrous Politics: Flooding and Citizens’ Political Behavior in a Nascent Democracy

Abstract

The flooding in some communities along the major rivers in months just before the February 2023 election presents a natural experiment for better insights into the scope of change for the political landscape of Nigeria after a major environmental shock. The flooding began in September 2022, the month commencing the political campaign, with major impact in the states bordering the major rivers and lake Chad, and it led to massive and rapid exodus of individuals, loss of farmlands, property, and lives. Using disaggregated voting record data from 2015, 2019, and 2023, GIS-coded flood locations to identify affected communities, and Afrobarometer survey data in periods immediately before the flood disaster, we examine the political behavior of voters in Nigeria after this exogeneous shock. We apply the difference-in-difference technique to compare the political behavior of communities affected by the flood compared to other unaffected communities, to establish how environmental shocks influence voters in a nascent democratic context.