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Title The Electoral Risk of Engagement in EU Affairs
Post date 02/21/2019
C1 Background and Explanation of Rationale Members of parliament (MPs) in Western European democracies engage in a wide range of time-consuming activities that are related to supranational politics. In the eyes of constituents, too many supranationally oriented activities might give the impression that MPs care more about supranational topics than local problems in the constituency. Therefore, we address the following question: Do citizens punish MPs who engage in supranationally oriented politics? We elaborate on background and motivation in our pre-analysis plan.
C2 What are the hypotheses to be tested? Our hypothesis is that citizens punish politicians who extensively engage in supranational politics. Using a conjoint survey experiment (see below) the quantities of interest are average marginal component effects. If our expectation is fulfilled, the observable implications are: The AMCE of most knowledge of problems and challenges (‘in European politics’) is negative and significant (as compared to the levels ‘in national politics’ and ‘in the constituency’). The AMCE of most common reason for absent days (‘meetings at the EU level’) is negative and significant (as compared to the levels ‘meetings in Berlin’ and ‘meetings in the constituency’). The AMCE of active cooperation in reform of the Eurozone (‘a lot’) is negative and significant (as compared to the levels ‘no’ and ‘little’). Please consult the pre-analysis plan for further information.
C3 How will these hypotheses be tested? * To understand public support for MPs who engage in supranational politics we conduct a conjoint survey experiment. Respondents will be presented sets of MP-profile pairs and be asked to choose the MP profile that they prefer. Each MP-profile varies on seven attributes. The attributes are divided into two clusters. The first cluster (1, 2, 3, 4) randomizes four important individual characteristics that are usually considered in choice tasks on MPs: gender, party affiliation, motivation for the candidacy, and experience as MP. In each case we randomize the levels that indicate (1) whether the MP is male or female; (2) whether the main reason of the MP to run for re-election is to serve the party, represent ordinary people, or wield political influence; (3) whether the MP is affiliated with CDU/CSU, SPD, FDP, Die Linke, Bündnis 90/Die Grünen, or AfD; (4) whether the MP has been in parliament for 1, 5 or 13 years. The second cluster evolves around the question of effort allocation between constituency work and supranational politics (5, 6, 7). In each case we randomize the levels that indicate (1) whether the MP has most knowledge of local, national or European politics; (2) whether the reasons for absent days in parliament are mostly because of meetings in the constituency, Berlin or at the EU level; (3) whether the MP shows no, little or a lot active cooperation in the reform of the Eurozone.
C4 Country Germany
C5 Scale (# of Units) ~1000
C6 Was a power analysis conducted prior to data collection? No
C7 Has this research received Insitutional Review Board (IRB) or ethics committee approval? No
C8 IRB Number not provided by authors
C9 Date of IRB Approval not provided by authors
C10 Will the intervention be implemented by the researcher or a third party? Researchers
C11 Did any of the research team receive remuneration from the implementing agency for taking part in this research? not provided by authors
C12 If relevant, is there an advance agreement with the implementation group that all results can be published? not provided by authors
C13 JEL Classification(s) D72