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Title Electoral Effects of Development Aid: Experimental Evidence from Sierra Leone
Post date 12/06/2018
C1 Background and Explanation of Rationale This study evaluates the electoral effects of a recent public health development intervention in Sierra Leone on the 2018 election results. We use election day exit poll surveys to test if voters reward politicians for development aid by comparing incumbent vote shares in villages that were randomly assigned to receive the aid intervention to incumbent vote shares in villages that were not assigned to receive the aid intervention.
C2 What are the hypotheses to be tested?

Hypothesis 1: Voters in villages that received the development intervention are more likely to vote for the incumbent candidate.

Hypothesis 2a: Voters in treatment villages are more likely to vote for incumbent politicians when voters attribute the development project to the incumbent politician.

Hypothesis 2b: Voters in treatment villages are more likely to vote for incumbent politicians when they perceive the development intervention has created a larger positive welfare shock.

C3 How will these hypotheses be tested? *

Hypothesis 1 is tested experimentally though the random assignment of development projects, where vote is measured at village level using exit poll surveys

Hypothesis 2a and 2b are tested non-experimentally (heterogeneous effects) using survey data.

C4 Country Sierra Leone
C5 Scale (# of Units) 363 villages
C6 Was a power analysis conducted prior to data collection? No
C7 Has this research received Insitutional Review Board (IRB) or ethics committee approval? Yes
C8 IRB Number IRB clearance from the Government of Sierra Leone, Office of the Sierra Leone Ethics and Scientific Review Committee (SLERC 16102017)
C9 Date of IRB Approval February 27, 2018
C10 Will the intervention be implemented by the researcher or a third party? Ministry of Agriculture in conjunctions with Knowledge for Community Empowerment Organization (KoCEPO), a Kono (Sierra Leone) based no-partisan civil society organization.
C11 Did any of the research team receive remuneration from the implementing agency for taking part in this research? not provided by authors
C12 If relevant, is there an advance agreement with the implementation group that all results can be published? not provided by authors
C13 JEL Classification(s) P16, D72, F35