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Title The psychology of political risk: Replication and extension
Post date 09/29/2015
C1 Background and Explanation of Rationale This project aims to provide a micro-empirical test of the potential psychological effects of political repression. The threat of political violence is often analyzed as an informational shock to the perceived probability of punishment. However, a large body of research on perceptions of risks suggest that affect has a large effect on how risks are perceived. This study applies this literature to understanding the effects of political violence, particularly violence intended to suppress opposition in an electoral autocracy. This study builds on an earlier experiment pre-registered and carried out in May 2015. It modifies the emotion induction technique and measurement of covariates, aims to replicate the original outcome measures, and adds additional outcomes.The two studies will be presented together in a paper discussing the results of both.
C2 What are the hypotheses to be tested? Subjects who receive the fear treatments will be more pessimistic in their assessments of political risks. Subjects who receive the fear treatments will believe that fewer of their fellow opposition supporters will take pro-opposition actions. Subjects who receive the fear treatments will be less willing to take pro-opposition political actions. Subjects who receive the fear treatments will be more pessimistic in their assessments of economic risks. Subjects who receive the fear treatments will be more risk averse in financial decisions. The effect of the political and general fear treatments will be equal.
C3 How will these hypotheses be tested? * Hypotheses will be tested with multivariate analysis that includes controls for the community, gender, an assets index, age, and education. I will also present difference-in-means tests. The main results will come from the pooled sample of people assigned to the political and apolitical emotion conditions. I will also test for differences across the political and general treatment conditions but do not expect that these effects will differ. If they are significantly different, then I will run the analysis separately for political and general emotions and discuss the results separately.
C4 Country Zimbabwe
C5 Scale (# of Units) 700
C6 Was a power analysis conducted prior to data collection? Yes
C7 Has this research received Insitutional Review Board (IRB) or ethics committee approval? Yes
C8 IRB Number IRB-AAAP2200
C9 Date of IRB Approval 9/15/2015
C10 Will the intervention be implemented by the researcher or a third party? Researchers
C11 Did any of the research team receive remuneration from the implementing agency for taking part in this research? No
C12 If relevant, is there an advance agreement with the implementation group that all results can be published? not provided by authors
C13 JEL Classification(s) D74, D72, D81, D84